The Impact of Stochastic Mesoscale Weather Systems on the Atlantic Ocean

Abstract The ocean is forced by the atmosphere on a range of spatial and temporal scales. In numerical models atmospheric resolution sets limit these scales for typical climate mesoscale (<500 km) forcing absent or misrepresented. Previous studies have demonstrated that significantly affects key circulation systems such as North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) meridional overturning (AMOC). Here we present model simulations demonstrate addition realistic leads to coherent patterns change: cooler sea surface in tropical subtropical Ocean deeper mixed layers autumn, winter, spring. These lead robust statistically significant increases volume transport SPG 10% AMOC up 10%. Our use novel stochastic parameterization—based cellular automata algorithm—to represent spatially weather realistically over scales, including down smallest resolvable grid (∼10 km). Convection-permitting predict changes intensity frequency due change, so representing them coupled would bring higher fidelity future projections.